PUBLICATIONS
Submitted manuscripts:
Börgel, Gröger, Meier, Dutheil, Radtke, Borchert: Tracing the fingerprint of multi-decadal fluctuations in the Baltic Sea
Ferster*, Borchert*, Mignot, Menary, Cassou, Fedorov: Variations in tropical Indian Ocean SST drive multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations
* shared first authorship
COMBINATION OF DECADAL PREDICTIONS AND CLIMATE PROJECTIONS IN TIME: CHALLENGES AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS
2022
Befort, D., Brunner, L., Borchert, L.F., O'Reilly, C., Mignot, J., Ballinger, A., Hegerl, G., Murphy, J., Weisheimer, A. (2022) Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: Challenges and potential solutions. Geophys. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098568
SELF-ORGANISING MAPS IDENTIFY WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEASONAL EUROPEAN SUMMER TEMPERATURE PREDICTIONS
2022
Carvalho Oliveira, J., Borchert, L.F., Zorita, E., Baehr, J. (2022) Self-organising maps identify windows of opportunity for seasonal European summer temperature predictions. Front. Clim. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.844634
SKILLFUL DECADAL PREDICTION OF UNFORCED SOUTHERN EUROPEAN SUMMER TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
2021
Borchert, L.F., Koul, V., Menary, M.B., Befort, D.J., Swingedouw, D., Sgubin, G. and Mignot, J. (2021) Skillful decadal prediction of unforced Southern European summer temperature variations. Env. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5
SUBTLE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ON SEASONAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE HINDCAST SKILL IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
2021
Carvalho-Oliveira, J., Borchert, L. F., Duchez, A., Dobrynin, M., and Baehr, J. (2021) Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on seasonal sea surface temperature hindcast skill in the North Atlantic, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021
SYSTEMATIC INVESTIGATION OF SKILL OPPORTUNITIES IN DECADAL PREDICTION OF AIR TEMPERATURE OVER EUROPE
2021
Sgubin, G., Swingedouw, D., Borchert, L.F. et al. (2021) Systematic investigation of skill opportunities in decadal prediction of air temperature over Europe. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05863-0
ON THE RISK OF ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SUBPOLAR GYRE IN CMIP6 MODELS
2021
Swingedouw, D., Bily, A., Esquerdo, C., Borchert, L.F., Sgubin, G., Mignot, J. and Menary, M. (2021), On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci.. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14659
TOWARDS CONSISTENT OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS IN CLIMATE PREDICTIONS AND PROJECTIONS
2021
Hegerl, G., Ballinger A., Booth B., Borchert L. F., Brunner, L., et al. (2021) Towards consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections. Frontiers in Climate. 3:678109. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.678109
IMPROVED DECADAL PREDICTIONS OF NORTH ATLANTIC SUBPOLAR GYRE SST IN CMIP6
2021
Borchert, L. F., Menary, M. B., Swingedouw, D., Sgubin, G., Hermanson, L., & Mignot, J. (2021). Improved decadal predictions of North Atlantic subpolar gyre SST in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091307. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091307
NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE FAR MORE PREDICTABLE THAN MODELS IMPLY
2020
Smith, D.M., Scaife, A.A., Eade, R. et al. (2020) North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature 583, 796–800. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0
Featured on, among others, the EUCP website, Science News, and Watt's Up With That
LINKING OCEAN FORCING AND ATMOSPHERIC INTERACTIONS TO ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY IN MPI‐ESM1.2
2020
Oelsmann, J., Borchert, L., Hand, R., Baehr, J., & Jungclaus, J. H. (2020). Linking ocean forcing and atmospheric interactions to Atlantic multidecadal variability in MPI‐ESM1.2. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087259. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087259
UNRAVELING THE CHOICE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC SUBPOLAR GYRE INDEX
2020
Koul, V., Tesdal, JE., Bersch, M. et al. (2020) Unraveling the choice of the north Atlantic subpolar gyre index. Sci Rep 10, 1005. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-57790-5
OBSERVED SUBDECADAL VARIATIONS OF EUROPEAN SUMMER TEMPERATURES
2020
Müller, W. A., Borchert, L., & Ghosh, R. (2020). Observed subdecadal variations of European summer temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086043. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086043
DECADAL PREDICTIONS OF THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE FOR WARM SUMMER TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
2019
Borchert, L. F., Pohlmann, H., Baehr, J., Neddermann, N.‐C., Suarez‐Gutierrez, L., & Müller, W. A. (2019). Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 14042– 14051. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085385
FORECAST‐ORIENTED ASSESSMENT OF DECADAL HINDCAST SKILL FOR NORTH ATLANTIC SST
2019
Borchert, L. F., Düsterhus, A., Brune, S., Müller, W. A., & Baehr, J. (2019). Forecast‐oriented assessment of decadal hindcast skill for North Atlantic SST. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 11444– 11454. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084758
DECADAL PREDICTIONS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGION: THE ROLE OF OCEAN HEAT TRANSPORT
2018
Borchert, L.F. (2018) Decadal predictions in the North Atlantic region: the role of ocean heat transport. PhD thesis. Reports on Earth System Science 208/2018. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_2639896_5/component/file_2639897/content
ATLANTIC OCEAN HEAT TRANSPORT INFLUENCES INTERANNUAL-TO-DECADAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE PREDICTABILITY IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGION
2018
Borchert, L. F., Müller, W. A., & Baehr, J. (2018). Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport Influences Interannual-to-Decadal Surface Temperature Predictability in the North Atlantic Region, Journal of Climate, 31(17), 6763-6782. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0734.1
Interview on this work as a University of Hamburg research highlight (in German)
COAST TO COAST: CURRENT MULTIDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH TRENDS IN GERMAN COASTAL AND MARINE GEOGRAPHY
2018
Link, P., Borchert, L.F., Süsser, D. et al. Coast to coast: current multidisciplinary research trends in German coastal and marine geography. J Coast Conserv 22, 1–4 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-017-0578-5